In-depth Analysis
With 18 points from the first 6 rounds, Norway, along with England and Spain, are the three teams with perfect records in the UEFA 2026 World Cup qualifiers. They fully deserve to be mentioned alongside the Three Lions, and even have a slight edge over Spain, as the reigning EURO champions have played only 4 matches so far.
Norway currently leads second-placed Italy and Israel in Group I by 3 and 9 points respectively, securing a spot in the play-offs. In the worst-case scenario, they would only drop to second place, but this is unlikely given Norway’s 3-0 win over Italy in the first leg.
Thanks to recent emphatic wins against Moldova (11-1) and Israel (5-0), Norway boasts a superior goal difference (+26 compared to Italy’s +10). Even if they slip up against Estonia at home, they would remain ahead of Italy before the two sides meet in the final round in Italy.
In theory, Norway could struggle against Estonia, but in reality, the visitors are far from capable of taking points. Estonia have gone 6 games without a win (4 losses, 2 draws), sitting on only 4 points, and are all but out of contention for the World Cup. In terms of form, Estonia cannot compare to Norway, who have won 9 of their last 10 matches, the remaining being a 1-1 draw with New Zealand. Therefore, it would be a surprise if Estonia leave Norway with any points.
In short, Norway’s chance to qualify for the World Cup after 28 years is looking very promising.