In-depth Analysis
Man City must be thrilled and full of hope seeing Arsenal drop points once again in this season’s Premier League title race. The 2-2 draw at Wolves means the gap between the two teams could shrink to just 2 points if the Citizens secure all three points against Newcastle at Etihad this round.
There are plenty of reasons to back a win for Pep Guardiola’s side. First, Man City has won all of their last six home Premier League matches against Newcastle without conceding a single goal. In the competition’s history, only a streak of seven consecutive clean-sheet wins against Stoke from 1982 to 2014 is longer.
Another strength lies in their solid defense. Since the 5-4 victory over Fulham in December 2025, Man City has conceded only 8 goals in their last 12 Premier League games – the fewest of any team over the same period. Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has also impressed with three expected-goal saves (xGoT) out of a total of 11 xGoT.
Newcastle’s record adds to Man City’s advantage. All nine of Newcastle’s recent Premier League away wins came against lower-half teams. They have not won in 10 away matches against top-half teams (3 draws, 7 losses) since the 3-1 victory over Nottingham in November 2024. Moreover, since 2001, Newcastle has not beaten any team in the Top 2, with a record of 5 draws and 32 losses since their 3-1 win over Arsenal.
Furthermore, since the 2010/11 season, only one English manager has won an away Premier League game against Man City – Roy Hodgson, who led Crystal Palace to a 3-2 win in December 2018. In the other 76 matches, English managers have drawn 8 and lost 67 times.
All these statistics suggest that Man City almost certainly holds the upper hand heading into their home clash with Newcastle this weekend.